PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .335vs RHH xwOBA .321Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 22%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 611 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CW Connor Wong RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-19 game page →