PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 21%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.