PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .340vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 22%Sweeper 18%Changeup 14%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .335
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-28 game page →