PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .344vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 21%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 552 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .429 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.