PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .312Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 26%Sinker 21%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 531 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 TF Ty France RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (26% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.