PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs San Diego Padres

How the San Diego Padres's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 22%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the San Diego Padres's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Diego Padres's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TF Ty France RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.