PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs Chicago Cubs

How the Chicago Cubs's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 22%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the Chicago Cubs's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Chicago Cubs's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 AB Alex Bregman RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MB Michael Busch LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 573 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 IH Ian Happ SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 596 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CK Carson Kelly RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MC Michael Conforto LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Conforto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MA Miguel Amaya RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Amaya
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-25 game page →