PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .346vs RHH xwOBA .325Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 22%Sweeper 18%Changeup 14%Curveball 11%Cutter 8%Slider 1%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IH Iván Herrera RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 494 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LN Lars Nootbaar LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lars Nootbaar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (8% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-18 game page →