PITCHER MATCHUP

Brandon Pfaadt vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brandon Pfaadt's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brandon Pfaadt's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 25%Sinker 21%Sweeper 18%Changeup 15%Curveball 11%Cutter 9%Slider 1%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brandon Pfaadt, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .393
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .419 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (18% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (15% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-05 game page →