PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sinker 21%Slider 20%Changeup 9%Sweeper 6%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SS Spencer Steer RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DM Dane Myers RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.