PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .375vs RHH xwOBA .284Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Slider 21%Sinker 20%Changeup 10%Sweeper 6%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 580 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-09 game page →