PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .370vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 44%Slider 21%Sinker 20%Changeup 10%Sweeper 5%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 414 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 571 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →