PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sinker 21%Slider 20%Changeup 9%Sweeper 6%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .360
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.