PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sinker 21%Slider 20%Changeup 9%Sweeper 6%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 644 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .359
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.