PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .365vs RHH xwOBA .288Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Slider 21%Sinker 20%Changeup 10%Sweeper 6%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .324
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 642 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 290 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 385 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 468 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 515 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (20% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-02 game page →