PITCHER MATCHUP

Brad Lord vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Brad Lord's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Brad Lord's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .285Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Sinker 21%Slider 20%Changeup 9%Sweeper 6%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Brad Lord, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 690 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 LT Lane Thomas RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.