PITCHER MATCHUP

Ben Brown vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Ben Brown's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Ben Brown's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .290Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 48%Knuckle Curve 38%Sinker 9%Changeup 5%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Ben Brown, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MS Myles Straw RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JS Josh Smith LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Knuckle Curve (38% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.