PITCHER MATCHUP

Austin Warren vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Austin Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Austin Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .339vs RHH xwOBA .319Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 46%Sinker 24%Four-Seam Fastball 15%Curveball 8%Cutter 5%Changeup 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Austin Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .267
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .238 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JF José Fermín RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BT Bryan Torres LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Torres
    • Sweeper (46% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Cutter (5% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.