PITCHER MATCHUP

Austin Warren vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Austin Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Austin Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .346vs RHH xwOBA .317Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 44%Sinker 28%Four-Seam Fastball 16%Curveball 6%Cutter 4%Changeup 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Austin Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .300
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 523 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MW Masyn Winn RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 533 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 NC Nathan Church LHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JF José Fermín RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 355 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 VS Victor Scott II LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Scott II
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.