PITCHER MATCHUP

Austin Warren vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Austin Warren's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Austin Warren's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .355vs RHH xwOBA .313Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sweeper 44%Sinker 28%Four-Seam Fastball 16%Curveball 6%Cutter 4%Changeup 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Austin Warren, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .302
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .271
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Sweeper (44% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.