PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .363Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 21%Sweeper 13%Splitter 13%Sinker 10%Curveball 8%Changeup 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 JB Josh Bell SH .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brooks Lee SH .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Byron Buxton RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 RL Royce Lewis RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 AM Austin Martin RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-16 game page →