PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 18%Sweeper 16%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%Splitter 8%Curveball 6%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KC Kody Clemens SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RL Royce Lewis RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BB Byron Buxton RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Austin Martin RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Martin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.