PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .342vs RHH xwOBA .358Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Slider 22%Splitter 14%Sweeper 11%Sinker 11%Curveball 9%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 521 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LT Leody Taveras SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Coby Mayo RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .236 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (14% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.