PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 19%Sweeper 16%Splitter 9%Sinker 9%Changeup 8%Curveball 7%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .355
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 445 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .231 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .235 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.