PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 18%Sweeper 16%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%Splitter 8%Curveball 6%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .223 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.