PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 19%Sweeper 16%Splitter 9%Sinker 9%Changeup 8%Curveball 7%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .226 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AR Agustín Ramírez RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Agustín Ramírez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.