PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .318vs RHH xwOBA .357Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 34%Slider 21%Splitter 13%Sweeper 12%Sinker 11%Curveball 9%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .334
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CN Connor Norby RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Four-Seam Fastball (34% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-17 game page →