PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .336vs RHH xwOBA .363Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 21%Sweeper 13%Splitter 13%Sinker 10%Curveball 8%Changeup 2%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 345 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (21% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (2% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-10 game page →