PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 18%Sweeper 16%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%Splitter 8%Curveball 6%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 690 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 311 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 540 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 LT Lane Thomas RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.