PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .334vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 19%Sweeper 16%Splitter 9%Sinker 9%Changeup 8%Curveball 7%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 662 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 MH Michael Harris II LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AR Austin Riley RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RA Ronald Acuña Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ronald Acuña Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 522 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  9. 9 DS Dominic Smith LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (9% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-13 game page →