PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .337Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 18%Sweeper 16%Changeup 10%Sinker 8%Splitter 8%Curveball 6%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .384
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .408 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .404 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .440 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (18% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (10% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (8% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (8% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (6% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.