PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Painter vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Painter's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Painter's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026
Four-Seam Fastball 33%Slider 19%Sweeper 16%Splitter 10%Sinker 9%Curveball 7%Changeup 7%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Painter, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .387
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .398 xwOBA over 415 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .406 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .412 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .432 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (16% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (9% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (7% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-08 game page →