PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 28%Slider 27%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 IC Isaac Collins SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LT Lane Thomas RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MM Michael Massey LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nick Loftin RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 SM Starling Marte RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Starling Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 TT Tyler Tolbert RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Tolbert
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.