PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025
Slider 29%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Curveball 27%Sinker 10%Changeup 4%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .397 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IC Isaac Collins SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NL Nick Loftin RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.