PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Kansas City Royals

How the Kansas City Royals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 30%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 23%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Kansas City Royals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Kansas City Royals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .321
  1. 1 SP Salvador Perez RHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 476 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .422 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 326 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 IC Isaac Collins SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 VP Vinnie Pasquantino LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vinnie Pasquantino
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 582 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NL Nick Loftin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 KI Kyle Isbel LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Isbel
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 356 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.