PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 624 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MM Matt McLain RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 SS Spencer Steer RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Steer
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DM Dane Myers RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jose Trevino RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Trevino
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.