PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 28%Slider 27%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 577 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 500 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TF TJ Friedl LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 NM Noelvi Marte RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Noelvi Marte
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DM Dane Myers RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-08 game page →