PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 29%Slider 26%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JD Jarren Duran LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 607 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .392 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (26% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.