PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 644 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 459 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TS Trevor Story RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Story
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NS Nick Sogard SH .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Sogard
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.