PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .305vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 28%Curveball 28%Slider 28%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 567 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 389 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 392 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CW Connor Wong RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Wong
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-01 game page →