PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Boston Red Sox

How the Boston Red Sox's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Boston Red Sox's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Boston Red Sox's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 513 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JD Jarren Duran LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 645 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willson Contreras RHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 AR Adley Rutschman SH .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Adley Rutschman
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 CM Curtis Mead RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Curtis Mead
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.