PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .395 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 348 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 422 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 520 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .262
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.