PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 30%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 23%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 308 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 511 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 RP Richie Palacios LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .280
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.