PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .310Seasons 2026–2025
Slider 29%Curveball 28%Four-Seam Fastball 28%Sinker 11%Changeup 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 350 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .284
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Slider (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-21 game page →