PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 28%Slider 27%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .306
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .352
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 294 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .350
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 248 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 384 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 467 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TW Taylor Walls SH .266
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 BW Ben Williamson RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NF Nick Fortes RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.