PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 621 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 BH Bryce Harper LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 208 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 BS Bryson Stott LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 583 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JC Justin Crawford LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 433 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DH Derek Hill RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Derek Hill
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CT Colby Thomas RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colby Thomas
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.