PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Philadelphia Phillies

How the Philadelphia Phillies's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 30%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 23%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Philadelphia Phillies's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Philadelphia Phillies's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 TT Trea Turner RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trea Turner
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 LA Luis Arraez LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 708 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 KS Kyle Schwarber LHB .340
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Schwarber
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 607 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 BH Bryce Harper LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Harper
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .383 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 AB Alec Bohm RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Bohm
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 503 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 372 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 BS Bryson Stott LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryson Stott
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 568 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BM Brandon Marsh LHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Marsh
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JC Justin Crawford LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Justin Crawford
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JR J.T. Realmuto RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.T. Realmuto
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.