PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 29%Slider 26%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 423 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TO Tyler O'Neill RHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler O'Neill
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.