PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .326vs RHH xwOBA .295Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 12%Changeup 5%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 565 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 545 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 452 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CE Christian Encarnacion-Strand RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Encarnacion-Strand
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.