PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 549 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 455 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 CM Coby Mayo RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CC Colton Cowser LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JH Jackson Holliday LHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Holliday
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.