PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Baltimore Orioles

How the Baltimore Orioles's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .308vs RHH xwOBA .301Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 29%Curveball 28%Slider 28%Sinker 11%Changeup 3%

How the Baltimore Orioles's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Baltimore Orioles's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 489 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 465 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 505 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LT Leody Taveras SH .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 342 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 CM Coby Mayo RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 CC Colton Cowser LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 347 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BA Blaze Alexander RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Alexander
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (28% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-26 game page →