PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs New York Mets

How the New York Mets's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the New York Mets's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the New York Mets's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .326
  1. 1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CB Carson Benge LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 BB Brett Baty LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 382 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 FL Francisco Lindor SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 638 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JS Juan Soto LHB .381
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Juan Soto
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .439 xwOBA over 484 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JY Jared Young LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.