PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .327vs RHH xwOBA .314Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 30%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 24%Sinker 13%Changeup 4%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 366 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .367 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 184 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Owen Caissie LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Joe Mack LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (24% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-30 game page →