PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 JW Jordan Walker RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 AB Alec Burleson LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 277 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 397 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 206 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.