PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs St. Louis Cardinals

How the St. Louis Cardinals's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .298Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 30%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 23%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the St. Louis Cardinals's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the St. Louis Cardinals's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 279 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 NG Nolan Gorman LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nolan Gorman
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 361 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.