PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 28%Slider 27%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .312
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 424 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 411 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 GS George Springer RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 400 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MS Myles Straw RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-27 game page →