PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 417 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 307 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .367
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 230 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 439 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 280 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.