PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Toronto Blue Jays

How the Toronto Blue Jays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .304Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 30%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 23%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Toronto Blue Jays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Toronto Blue Jays's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .364
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 447 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Jesús Sánchez LHB .329
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jesús Sánchez
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 407 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 MS Myles Straw RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Curveball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (23% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.