PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .338vs RHH xwOBA .305Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 29%Slider 25%Sinker 12%Changeup 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .397
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 393 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .405 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 464 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .242 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 321 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .283
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (29% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (25% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (12% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.