PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .299vs RHH xwOBA .299Seasons 2026–2025
Four-Seam Fastball 30%Curveball 28%Slider 27%Sinker 11%Changeup 4%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .385
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 192 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 418 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 BM Brice Matthews RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brice Matthews
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .281
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 259 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-07 game page →