PITCHER MATCHUP

Andrew Alvarez vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Andrew Alvarez's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Andrew Alvarez's arsenal

Throws LHPvs LHH xwOBA .337vs RHH xwOBA .297Seasons 2026–2025
Curveball 31%Four-Seam Fastball 29%Slider 22%Sinker 13%Changeup 5%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Andrew Alvarez, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .316
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 514 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .391
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 487 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 256 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Curveball (31% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.