PITCHER MATCHUP

AJ Smith-Shawver vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against AJ Smith-Shawver's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

AJ Smith-Shawver's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .328vs RHH xwOBA .417Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 46%Splitter 34%Curveball 13%Slider 5%Sinker 2%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against AJ Smith-Shawver, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .309
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .256 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 517 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 295 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 462 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 VC Victor Caratini SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 RK Ryan Kreidler RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Kreidler
    • Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (34% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.