PITCHER MATCHUP

AJ Smith-Shawver vs Minnesota Twins

How the Minnesota Twins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against AJ Smith-Shawver's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

AJ Smith-Shawver's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .357vs RHH xwOBA .352Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 43%Splitter 35%Curveball 13%Slider 5%Sinker 4%Cutter 1%

How the Minnesota Twins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Minnesota Twins's top-9-by-AB hitters against AJ Smith-Shawver, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 BL Brooks Lee SH .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brooks Lee
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JB Josh Bell SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Bell
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 550 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 KC Kody Clemens SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kody Clemens
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LK Luke Keaschall RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Keaschall
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 RL Royce Lewis RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Royce Lewis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 319 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 TL Trevor Larnach LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Trevor Larnach
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 478 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 BB Byron Buxton RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Byron Buxton
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 VC Victor Caratini SH .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Caratini
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 RJ Ryan Jeffers RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan Jeffers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (4% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.