PITCHER MATCHUP

AJ Smith-Shawver vs Tampa Bay Rays

How the Tampa Bay Rays's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against AJ Smith-Shawver's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

AJ Smith-Shawver's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .317vs RHH xwOBA .407Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Four-Seam Fastball 45%Splitter 35%Curveball 13%Slider 5%Sinker 3%

How the Tampa Bay Rays's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Tampa Bay Rays's top-9-by-AB hitters against AJ Smith-Shawver, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JC Junior Caminero RHB .356
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .332
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 376 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 351 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 509 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .272
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 378 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RP Richie Palacios LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JD Jonny DeLuca RHB .289
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonny DeLuca
    • Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (35% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-09-08 game page →