PITCHER MATCHUP

Adrian Houser vs Cincinnati Reds

How the Cincinnati Reds's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Adrian Houser's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Adrian Houser's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .289Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 46%Four-Seam Fastball 16%Changeup 16%Slider 13%Curveball 9%

How the Cincinnati Reds's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Cincinnati Reds's top-9-by-AB hitters against Adrian Houser, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 SS Sal Stewart RHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sal Stewart
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 ED Elly De La Cruz SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Elly De La Cruz
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 592 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 292 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 JB JJ Bleday LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Bleday
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 428 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 ES Eugenio Suárez RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eugenio Suárez
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 524 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MM Matt McLain RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt McLain
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 TS Tyler Stephenson RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Stephenson
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 354 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DM Dane Myers RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dane Myers
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 TF TJ Friedl LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Friedl
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .225 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KH Ke'Bryan Hayes RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ke'Bryan Hayes
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 289 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-08-25 game page →