PITCHER MATCHUP

Adrian Houser vs Atlanta Braves

How the Atlanta Braves's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Adrian Houser's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Adrian Houser's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .369vs RHH xwOBA .291Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 46%Changeup 16%Slider 14%Four-Seam Fastball 14%Curveball 11%

How the Atlanta Braves's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Atlanta Braves's top-9-by-AB hitters against Adrian Houser, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 565 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 404 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 360 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DS Dominic Smith LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EW Eli White RHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Eli White
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-16 game page →