PITCHER MATCHUP

Adrian Houser vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Adrian Houser's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Adrian Houser's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .361vs RHH xwOBA .286Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 46%Four-Seam Fastball 16%Changeup 16%Slider 13%Curveball 9%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Adrian Houser, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 CW Christian Walker RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 510 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .399
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .393 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .430 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 485 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Cam Smith RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 258 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 293 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .279
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (9% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.