PITCHER MATCHUP

Adrian Houser vs Houston Astros

How the Houston Astros's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Adrian Houser's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Adrian Houser's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .360vs RHH xwOBA .289Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Sinker 46%Changeup 16%Four-Seam Fastball 15%Slider 13%Curveball 10%

How the Houston Astros's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Houston Astros's top-9-by-AB hitters against Adrian Houser, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .319
  1. 1 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .404
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .410 xwOBA over 386 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .435 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 CW Christian Walker RHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 318 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 CS Cam Smith RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .307
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 317 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 316 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 138 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 298 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .278
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
    • Sinker (46% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (13% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.