PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .320vs RHH xwOBA .316Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 35%Curveball 21%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 13%Splitter 6%Slider 5%Sweeper 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 264 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 555 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 273 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake Mangum SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 444 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 196 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 145 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .349
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .399 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .381 xwOBA over 371 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.