PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .331Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 34%Curveball 20%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 13%Splitter 5%Slider 5%Sweeper 4%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .331
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 482 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 161 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 314 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (4% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-17 game page →