PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs Pittsburgh Pirates

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .325vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 34%Curveball 21%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 13%Splitter 5%Slider 5%Sweeper 3%

How the Pittsburgh Pirates's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Pittsburgh Pirates's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .333
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 236 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 250 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 JM Jake Mangum SH .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 426 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 227 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 223 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HD Henry Davis RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 197 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.