PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .311Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 36%Curveball 22%Sinker 18%Four-Seam Fastball 12%Splitter 6%Slider 4%Sweeper 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .318
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 346 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 281 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 481 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 233 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .252 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .324
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 220 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .341
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 OC Owen Caissie LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 GC Griffin Conine LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Cutter (36% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (6% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.