PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .332vs RHH xwOBA .326Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 34%Curveball 20%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 14%Splitter 5%Slider 5%Sweeper 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .314
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 430 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 LH Liam Hicks LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Joe Mack LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Cutter (34% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (14% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-07-04 game page →