PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs Miami Marlins

How the Miami Marlins's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .322vs RHH xwOBA .328Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 35%Curveball 21%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 13%Splitter 5%Slider 5%Sweeper 3%

How the Miami Marlins's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the Miami Marlins's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 358 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 239 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 460 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .312
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 242 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Joe Mack LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 GC Griffin Conine LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Griffin Conine
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 LJ Leo Jiménez RHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leo Jiménez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (21% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

No meeting currently scheduled — this is a durable season matchup read.