PITCHER MATCHUP

Aaron Civale vs San Francisco Giants

How the San Francisco Giants's current regulars (top 9 by at-bats) project against Aaron Civale's season-to-date arsenal — not the posted lineup for any single game.

Aaron Civale's arsenal

Throws RHPvs LHH xwOBA .331vs RHH xwOBA .330Seasons 2026–2025–2024
Cutter 35%Curveball 20%Sinker 19%Four-Seam Fastball 13%Splitter 5%Slider 5%Sweeper 3%

How the San Francisco Giants's regulars project

Projected expected wOBA for each of the San Francisco Giants's top-9-by-AB hitters against Aaron Civale, by batting order. A season-to-date read — lower favors the pitcher.

Lineup avg xwOBA .315
  1. 1 WA Willy Adames RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willy Adames
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 561 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 243 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 RD Rafael Devers LHB .339
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rafael Devers
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 270 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 538 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 LA Luis Arraez LHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Arraez
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 328 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 614 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 167 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 MC Matt Chapman RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Chapman
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 457 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 235 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CS Casey Schmitt RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Casey Schmitt
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  6. 6 JH Jung Hoo Lee LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jung Hoo Lee
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 359 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DG Drew Gilbert LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drew Gilbert
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 BE Bryce Eldridge LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryce Eldridge
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 DS Daniel Susac RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daniel Susac
    • Cutter (35% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (20% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (13% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (5% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Slider (5% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Full pitch-by-pitch breakdown, with pitch-zone heatmaps →

Next scheduled meeting: 2026-06-23 game page →