September 25, 2026 · AL Cent
Pittsburgh Pirates at Detroit Tigers
@
Probable starters
AWAY
TBD
HOME · DET
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Hitter season stats
Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.
AWAY · PIT Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Bryan Reynolds LF · S | .262 | .365 | .423 | .788 | 17 | 71 | 158 | .730 |
| 2 Brandon Lowe 2B · L | .262 | .332 | .492 | .824 | 33 | 93 | 184 | .730 |
| 3 Nick Gonzales 3B · R | .302 | .365 | .389 | .754 | 6 | 60 | 97 | .719 |
| 4 Jake Mangum CF · S | .279 | .336 | .370 | .706 | 5 | 32 | 87 | .715 |
| 5 Ryan O'Hearn RF · L | .264 | .331 | .443 | .774 | 18 | 73 | 93 | .730 |
| 6 Spencer Horwitz 1B · L | .248 | .346 | .367 | .713 | 10 | 47 | 69 | .737 |
| 7 Oneil Cruz CF · L | .280 | .367 | .490 | .857 | 20 | 67 | 136 | .729 |
| 8 Jared Triolo SS · R | .241 | .311 | .307 | .618 | 3 | 29 | 69 | .712 |
| 9 Konnor Griffin SS · R | .267 | .322 | .389 | .711 | 5 | 31 | 78 | .759 |
HOME · DET Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Kevin McGonigle SS · L | .274 | .376 | .424 | .800 | 17 | 70 | 92 | .750 |
| 2 Dillon Dingler C · R | .243 | .301 | .450 | .751 | 27 | 89 | 136 | .724 |
| 3 Spencer Torkelson 1B · R | .229 | .326 | .424 | .750 | 24 | 72 | 184 | .738 |
| 4 Riley Greene LF · L | .285 | .372 | .484 | .856 | 21 | 75 | 152 | .766 |
| 5 Colt Keith 3B · L | .258 | .322 | .406 | .728 | 10 | 36 | 84 | .737 |
| 6 Zach McKinstry RF · L | .202 | .286 | .298 | .584 | 4 | 26 | 68 | .710 |
| 7 Gleyber Torres 2B · R | .262 | .365 | .368 | .733 | 8 | 38 | 79 | .729 |
| 8 Hao-Yu Lee 2B · R | .262 | .317 | .426 | .743 | 10 | 45 | 83 | .746 |
| 9 Javier Báez SS · R | .237 | .265 | .345 | .610 | 2 | 17 | 38 | .685 |
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
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1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 562 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 265 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .260 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 399 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 214 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 306 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 JM Jake Mangum SH .291
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 225 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 200 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 240 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 416 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 OC Oneil Cruz LHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Oneil Cruz
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 234 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 KG Konnor Griffin RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Konnor Griffin
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (28% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · PIT
Lineup 4.4 R
Bunts 0.9 R
IBBs 3.6 R
HOME · DET
Lineup 4.9 R
Bunts 0.9 R
IBBs 1.4 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · PIT
- Available 7
- Limited 3
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
HOME · DET
- Available 6
- Limited 2
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · PIT
6-4
W4
-5 run diff
WWWWLLWLLW
HOME · DET
6-4
L2
+13 run diff
LLWLLWWWWW
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Pirates and Tigers staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.