Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners Preview — September 23, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY

TBD

HOME · SEA

George Kirby

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · HOU Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Christian Walker 1B · R	.221	.294	.407	.701	25	80	142	.723
2 Yordan Alvarez DH · L	.313	.430	.597	1.027	40	99	115	.772
3 Isaac Paredes 3B · R	.260	.358	.434	.792	22	90	85	.749
4 Jose Altuve 2B · R	.249	.307	.402	.709	16	45	107	.731
5 Cam Smith RF · R	.209	.274	.389	.663	20	54	140	.739
6 Daulton Varsho CF · L	.221	.281	.355	.636	12	40	107	.719
7 Jeremy Peña SS · R	.275	.325	.472	.797	20	51	109	.736
8 Yainer Diaz C · R	.278	.309	.446	.755	13	40	52	.734
9 Taylor Trammell LF · L	.202	.290	.360	.650	8	22	85	.715

HOME · SEA Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Julio Rodríguez CF · R	.243	.304	.397	.701	21	66	141	.760
2 Josh Naylor 1B · L	.268	.323	.359	.682	10	54	77	.747
3 Cole Young 2B · L	.246	.307	.385	.692	17	65	104	.737
4 Randy Arozarena LF · R	.279	.376	.481	.857	26	76	137	.728
5 Taylor Ward DH · R	.222	.358	.309	.667	7	35	130	.729
6 Dominic Canzone DH · L	.261	.333	.485	.818	22	72	107	.724
7 Cal Raleigh C · S	.182	.294	.376	.670	23	68	160	.759
8 J.P. Crawford SS · L	.222	.338	.352	.690	13	38	93	.717
9 Weston Wilson 3B · R	.213	.295	.323	.618	4	13	53	.715

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

SEA starter vs Astros lineup

George Kirby (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .309

1 CW Christian Walker RHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 501 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .368
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 427 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 496 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 JA Jose Altuve RHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 352 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 CS Cam Smith RHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 251 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .289
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 437 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 191 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .332
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 373 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 341 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .391 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 TT Taylor Trammell LHB .283
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Trammell
- Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 156 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (27% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.

George Kirby vs Astros: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · HOU

Joe Espada

Lineup 5.5 R Bunts 2.3 R IBBs 0.7 R

HOME · SEA

Dan Wilson

Lineup 3.1 R Bunts 1.4 R IBBs 3.7 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · HOU

Available 5
Limited 2
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

HOME · SEA

Available 9
Limited 0
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · HOU

3-7 L3 -18 run diff

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HOME · SEA

5-5 W1 +19 run diff

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Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Astros and Mariners staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.