PREVIEW Starts 6:35 PM ET · Oriole Park at Camden Yards
September 22, 2026 · AL East

Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

September 22, 20266:35 PM ETOriole Park at Camden Yards
AWAY
Toronto Blue Jays
77-79
—
@
HOME
Baltimore Orioles
75-81
—

Probable starters

AWAY · TOR
Max Scherzer
Max Scherzer
HOME · BAL
Chris Bassitt
Chris Bassitt

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · TOR Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Ernie Clement 2B · R .265 .291 .372 .663 9 48 56 .715
2 Kazuma Okamoto 3B · R .235 .310 .459 .769 33 89 177 .718
3 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1B · R .263 .336 .359 .695 9 56 78 .779
4 Andrés Giménez SS · L .242 .287 .356 .643 9 58 92 .704
5 George Springer DH · R .248 .323 .407 .730 15 53 91 .728
6 Nathan Lukes RF · L .274 .322 .387 .709 10 39 63 .716
7 Myles Straw CF · R .238 .304 .345 .649 3 26 41 .702
8 Alejandro Kirk C · R .282 .353 .424 .777 10 42 36 .730
9 Brandon Valenzuela C · S .219 .304 .361 .665 8 21 68 .737
HOME · BAL Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Gunnar Henderson SS · L .223 .308 .397 .705 23 58 151 .776
2 Pete Alonso 1B · R .264 .358 .500 .858 38 105 163 .753
3 Leody Taveras CF · S .216 .286 .339 .625 8 54 124 .708
4 Coby Mayo 3B · R .229 .298 .471 .769 24 63 130 .734
5 Samuel Basallo C · L .223 .292 .408 .700 18 54 104 .744
6 Colton Cowser CF · L .224 .313 .367 .680 13 39 118 .729
7 Dylan Beavers LF · L .234 .310 .368 .678 7 39 90 .740
8 Jeremiah Jackson 2B · R .221 .247 .366 .613 9 43 63 .736
9 Carlos Narváez C · R .167 .245 .233 .478 3 10 90 .729

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

TOR starter vs Orioles lineup

Max Scherzer (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .313
  1. 1 GH Gunnar Henderson LHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gunnar Henderson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 563 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 253 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 PA Pete Alonso RHB .363
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Alonso
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 542 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .396 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 LT Leody Taveras SH .282
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Leody Taveras
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 401 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 CM Coby Mayo RHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Coby Mayo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 215 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 SB Samuel Basallo LHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Samuel Basallo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CC Colton Cowser LHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colton Cowser
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 391 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 DB Dylan Beavers LHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dylan Beavers
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JJ Jeremiah Jackson RHB .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremiah Jackson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .292
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (22% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (14% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Max Scherzer vs Orioles: full season matchup breakdown →
BAL starter vs Blue Jays lineup

Chris Bassitt (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .310
  1. 1 EC Ernie Clement SH .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ernie Clement
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 305 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 KO Kazuma Okamoto RHB .315
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kazuma Okamoto
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 VG Vladimir Guerrero Jr. RHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 456 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 449 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 210 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 272 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 AG Andrés Giménez LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andrés Giménez
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 GS George Springer RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. George Springer
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 438 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 NL Nathan Lukes LHB .293
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Lukes
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MS Myles Straw RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Myles Straw
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 AK Alejandro Kirk RHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alejandro Kirk
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .374 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 194 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 BV Brandon Valenzuela SH .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Valenzuela
    • Sinker (40% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (18% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (9% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (6% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (4% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (2% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Chris Bassitt vs Blue Jays: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · TOR
John Schneider
John Schneider
Lineup 2.5 R Bunts 5.3 R IBBs 6.9 R
HOME · BAL
Craig Albernaz
Craig Albernaz
Lineup 3.3 R Bunts 1.5 R IBBs 3.9 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · TOR
  • Available 5
  • Limited 4
  • Rest required 1
  • Inactive 0
HOME · BAL
  • Available 7
  • Limited 3
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · TOR
4-6 W1 -5 run diff
WLLWLLWWLL
HOME · BAL
5-5 L3 +0 run diff
LLLWWWLLWW

Season series: 2-1 with TOR listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Blue Jays and Orioles staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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