PREVIEW Starts 2:15 PM ET · Busch Stadium
August 9, 2026 · NL Cent

Colorado Rockies at St. Louis Cardinals

August 9, 20262:15 PM ETBusch Stadium
AWAY
Colorado Rockies
45-70
—
@
HOME
St. Louis Cardinals
57-58
—

Probable starters

AWAY · COL
Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen
HOME · STL
Michael McGreevy
Michael McGreevy

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · COL Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 TJ Rumfield 1B · L .291 .370 .460 .830 13 58 66 .733
2 Hunter Goodman C · R .254 .323 .547 .870 33 66 147 .747
3 Ezequiel Tovar SS · R .207 .250 .335 .585 9 37 99 .738
4 Jake McCarthy CF · L .293 .331 .490 .821 11 64 67 .712
5 Willi Castro 2B · S .264 .334 .426 .760 13 48 106 .717
6 Kyle Karros 3B · R .271 .368 .428 .796 9 41 79 .735
7 Troy Johnston RF · L .281 .347 .388 .735 3 41 62 .721
8 Mickey Moniak LF · L .278 .318 .571 .889 19 52 72 .734
9 Tyler Freeman RF · R .250 .320 .317 .637 3 23 34 .720
HOME · STL Projected · top 9 by AB
BATTER 2026 SEASON PROJ OPS
AVGOBPSLGOPSHRRBIK
1 Alec Burleson 1B · L .287 .351 .480 .831 18 77 76 .739
2 Jordan Walker RF · R .285 .343 .491 .834 22 81 119 .728
3 Iván Herrera DH · R .239 .355 .373 .728 12 47 89 .752
4 JJ Wetherholt 2B · L .248 .351 .388 .739 16 43 76 .746
5 Masyn Winn SS · R .238 .317 .317 .634 4 45 88 .732
6 Nathan Church CF · L .236 .283 .366 .649 9 35 63 .729
7 José Fermín LF · R .237 .297 .355 .652 5 24 30 .724
8 Pedro Pagés C · R .206 .251 .323 .574 4 11 45 .716
9 Blaze Jordan 3B · R .252 .271 .370 .641 1 22 20 .746

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

COL starter vs Cardinals lineup

Michael Lorenzen (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .311
  1. 1 AB Alec Burleson LHB .343
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alec Burleson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 486 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 JW Jordan Walker RHB .310
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jordan Walker
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 IH Iván Herrera RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Iván Herrera
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 344 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JW JJ Wetherholt LHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. JJ Wetherholt
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MW Masyn Winn RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masyn Winn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 512 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 255 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 NC Nathan Church LHB .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nathan Church
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JF José Fermín RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. José Fermín
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 PP Pedro Pagés RHB .285
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pedro Pagés
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 BJ Blaze Jordan RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Blaze Jordan
    • Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (19% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (11% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (8% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Michael Lorenzen vs Cardinals: full season matchup breakdown →
STL starter vs Rockies lineup

Michael McGreevy (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .307
  1. 1 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .318
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  2. 2 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 336 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 219 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 429 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 283 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  5. 5 WC Willi Castro SH .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 499 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  6. 6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  7. 7 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 MM Mickey Moniak LHB .304
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mickey Moniak
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .244 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
    • Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 325 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (19% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (16% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 85 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (14% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Michael McGreevy vs Rockies: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · COL
Warren Schaeffer
Warren Schaeffer
Lineup 3.3 R Bunts 1.7 R IBBs 3.3 R
HOME · STL
Oliver Marmol
Oliver Marmol
Lineup 2.9 R Bunts 2.5 R IBBs 2.0 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · COL
  • Available 8
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · STL
  • Available 8
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · COL
3-7 L3 -10 run diff
LLLWWWLLLL
HOME · STL
4-6 W1 -9 run diff
WLWWLLLWLL

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Rockies and Cardinals staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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