Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners Preview — August 8, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · TB

Griffin Jax

HOME · SEA

George Kirby

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · TB Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Junior Caminero 3B · R	.284	.373	.559	.932	33	71	91	.767
2 Yandy Díaz DH · R	.300	.373	.458	.831	15	64	72	.747
3 Jonathan Aranda 1B · L	.285	.374	.432	.806	14	71	111	.743
4 Chandler Simpson LF · L	.299	.329	.357	.686	0	23	39	.731
5 Liam Hicks C · L	.282	.364	.439	.803	15	66	39	.726
6 Cedric Mullins CF · L	.204	.280	.357	.637	13	35	79	.711
7 Taylor Walls SS · S	.214	.305	.280	.585	0	23	81	.694
8 Ben Williamson 2B · R	.247	.309	.332	.641	3	26	51	.727
9 Nick Fortes C · R	.276	.317	.383	.700	4	28	32	.697

HOME · SEA Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Cole Young 2B · L	.263	.323	.412	.735	14	51	76	.737
2 Josh Naylor 1B · L	.260	.323	.355	.678	8	40	58	.747
3 Taylor Ward LF · R	.245	.380	.343	.723	7	30	106	.729
4 Julio Rodríguez CF · R	.258	.322	.421	.743	17	50	91	.760
5 Randy Arozarena LF · R	.285	.379	.456	.835	14	49	96	.728
6 Cal Raleigh C · S	.162	.266	.308	.574	12	43	114	.759
7 Dominic Canzone DH · L	.254	.331	.502	.833	18	49	68	.728
8 Colt Emerson SS · L	.201	.260	.358	.618	8	23	72	.755
9 Victor Robles RF · R	.241	.288	.267	.555	0	5	21	.724

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

TB starter vs Mariners lineup

Griffin Jax (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .314

1 JN Josh Naylor LHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 490 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 285 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
2 CY Cole Young LHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
3 TW Taylor Ward RHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Ward
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 534 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 448 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 379 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 RA Randy Arozarena RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Randy Arozarena
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 532 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 337 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 288 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 589 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .418 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 113 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .402 xwOBA over 216 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 53 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .384 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
8 CE Colt Emerson LHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Colt Emerson
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
9 VR Victor Robles RHB .288
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Victor Robles
- Sweeper (33% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (22% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (16% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (6% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Griffin Jax vs Mariners: full season matchup breakdown →

SEA starter vs Rays lineup

George Kirby (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .302

1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .345
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 299 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .334
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 432 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 387 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
3 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 322 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 173 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .297
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 303 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
5 LH Liam Hicks LHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Liam Hicks
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
6 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .269
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .240 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 TW Taylor Walls SH .272
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 339 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .241 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .288
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 46 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 NF Nick Fortes RHB .285
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (28% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (24% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (10% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (5% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Splitter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

George Kirby vs Rays: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · TB

Kevin Cash

Lineup 2.2 R Bunts 3.7 R IBBs 3.5 R

HOME · SEA

Dan Wilson

Lineup 2.6 R Bunts 1.1 R IBBs 2.0 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · TB

Available 8
Limited 0
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

HOME · SEA

Available 6
Limited 2
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · TB

7-3 W3 +0 run diff

WWWLWLWWLW

HOME · SEA

4-6 L1 -26 run diff

LWLWWLLLWL

Season series: 2-1 with TB listed first across 3 prior meetings.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Rays and Mariners staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.