Houston Astros at San Diego Padres Preview — August 8, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · HOU

Peter Lambert

HOME · SD

Michael King

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · HOU Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Christian Walker 1B · R	.240	.315	.460	.775	22	65	112	.723
2 Yordan Alvarez DH · L	.329	.442	.640	1.082	35	85	87	.772
3 Isaac Paredes 3B · R	.249	.346	.412	.758	15	60	68	.749
4 Cam Smith RF · R	.217	.289	.372	.661	13	40	101	.739
5 Jose Altuve 2B · R	.244	.305	.398	.703	13	34	80	.731
6 Daulton Varsho CF · L	.242	.311	.370	.681	7	26	74	.719
7 Jeremy Peña SS · R	.311	.369	.509	.878	13	37	56	.736
8 Yainer Diaz C · R	.260	.284	.414	.698	8	27	35	.738
9 Christian Vázquez C · R	.218	.272	.330	.602	5	23	41	.681

HOME · SD Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · R	.280	.350	.403	.753	9	50	98	.756
2 Jackson Merrill CF · L	.241	.292	.396	.688	16	55	114	.765
3 Manny Machado 3B · R	.210	.294	.422	.716	23	70	108	.733
4 Xander Bogaerts SS · R	.227	.323	.327	.650	9	41	80	.715
5 Gavin Sheets 1B · L	.212	.311	.389	.700	14	43	77	.709
6 Ty France 1B · R	.291	.343	.526	.869	16	50	72	.703
7 Luis Rengifo LF · S	.241	.323	.309	.632	2	27	36	.714
8 Jake Cronenworth 2B · L	.218	.310	.289	.599	3	17	51	.714
9 Freddy Fermin C · R	.187	.269	.310	.579	4	16	36	.708

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

HOU starter vs Padres lineup

Peter Lambert (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .316

1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .335
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 375 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .329
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 101 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
3 MM Manny Machado RHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 363 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 TF Ty France RHB .296
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .245 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .288
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (23% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (16% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (9% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- SV (9% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 2 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (3% usage) projects to .234 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.

Peter Lambert vs Padres: full season matchup breakdown →

SD starter vs Astros lineup

Michael King (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .317

1 CW Christian Walker RHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 127 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .397
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .411 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
4 CS Cam Smith RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .254 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .298
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .262 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .390 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .356 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .276
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
- Sinker (29% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (25% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Four-Seam Fastball (21% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (19% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (6% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Michael King vs Astros: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · HOU

Joe Espada

Lineup 4.6 R Bunts 1.7 R IBBs 0.5 R

HOME · SD

Craig Stammen

Lineup 1.7 R Bunts 2.2 R IBBs 1.9 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · HOU

Available 7
Limited 0
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

HOME · SD

Available 6
Limited 1
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · HOU

7-3 L1 +13 run diff

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HOME · SD

7-3 W1 +8 run diff

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Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Astros and Padres staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.