New York Mets at Pittsburgh Pirates Preview — August 7, 2026

Probable starters

AWAY · NYM

Zac Thornton

HOME · PIT

Carmen Mlodzinski

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Hitter season stats

Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.

AWAY · NYM Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Bo Bichette 3B · R	.257	.301	.370	.671	11	56	93	.742
2 Carson Benge RF · L	.267	.327	.410	.737	13	44	101	.746
3 Marcus Semien 2B · R	.214	.274	.359	.633	13	37	83	.709
4 Brett Baty 3B · L	.219	.290	.330	.620	7	34	99	.725
5 A.J. Ewing CF · L	.262	.328	.399	.727	7	28	78	.755
6 Francisco Alvarez C · R	.251	.338	.431	.769	12	28	79	.746
7 Francisco Lindor SS · S	.230	.311	.422	.733	10	28	51	.749
8 Luis Torrens C · R	.234	.300	.359	.659	4	27	42	.708
9 Jared Young 1B · L	.253	.336	.430	.766	7	22	41	.716

HOME · PIT Projected · top 9 by AB

BATTER	2026 SEASON							PROJ OPS
BATTER	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	HR	RBI	K	PROJ OPS
1 Bryan Reynolds LF · S	.266	.377	.441	.818	15	63	125	.730
2 Brandon Lowe 2B · L	.255	.321	.486	.807	24	72	134	.730
3 Nick Gonzales 3B · R	.309	.362	.399	.761	6	50	79	.719
4 Jake Mangum CF · S	.298	.352	.374	.726	3	24	61	.715
5 Spencer Horwitz 1B · L	.271	.375	.439	.814	10	37	45	.737
6 Jared Triolo SS · R	.239	.316	.304	.620	1	20	56	.712
7 Henry Davis C · R	.170	.268	.315	.583	8	30	48	.707
8 Esmerlyn Valdez RF · R	.248	.364	.595	.959	14	38	68	.750
9 Endy Rodríguez C · S	.269	.376	.470	.846	7	20	41	.724

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

NYM starter vs Pirates lineup

Zac Thornton (LHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .318

1 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .345
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 525 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 252 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 BL Brandon Lowe SH .324
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 369 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 JM Jake Mangum SH .313
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
5 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 95 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 377 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 JT Jared Triolo RHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 67 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 357 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 141 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
7 HD Henry Davis RHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
8 EV Esmerlyn Valdez RHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Esmerlyn Valdez
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
9 ER Endy Rodríguez SH .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Endy Rodríguez
- Cutter (35% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (25% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (12% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (7% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Zac Thornton vs Pirates: full season matchup breakdown →

PIT starter vs Mets lineup

Carmen Mlodzinski (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .317

1 BB Bo Bichette RHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bo Bichette
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 327 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 304 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
2 CB Carson Benge LHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Benge
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
3 MS Marcus Semien RHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcus Semien
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 495 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .272 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 312 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .247 xwOBA over 271 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
4 BB Brett Baty LHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brett Baty
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 340 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .239 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
5 AE A.J. Ewing LHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. A.J. Ewing
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
6 FA Francisco Alvarez RHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Alvarez
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .351 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
7 FL Francisco Lindor SH .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Francisco Lindor
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 560 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 142 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
8 LT Luis Torrens RHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Torrens
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
9 JY Jared Young LHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Young
- Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Splitter (20% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (15% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (10% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (2% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.

Carmen Mlodzinski vs Mets: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · NYM

Andy Green

Lineup 4.3 R Bunts 1.9 R IBBs 1.6 R

HOME · PIT

Don Kelly

Lineup 4.0 R Bunts 0.6 R IBBs 2.8 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · NYM

Available 5
Limited 2
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

HOME · PIT

Available 8
Limited 1
Rest required 0
Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · NYM

5-4 W3 +5 run diff

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HOME · PIT

2-8 L3 -17 run diff

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Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Mets and Pirates staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.