August 7, 2026 · NL West
Houston Astros at San Diego Padres
@
Probable starters
AWAY · HOU
HOME · SD
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Hitter season stats
Season-to-date lines for each hitter in the projected lineup, with a Marcel projection (Proj OPS). Season columns are 2026 to date; Proj is a forward-looking estimate, not a result.
AWAY · HOU Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Christian Walker 1B · R | .240 | .315 | .460 | .775 | 22 | 65 | 112 | .723 |
| 2 Yordan Alvarez DH · L | .329 | .442 | .640 | 1.082 | 35 | 85 | 87 | .772 |
| 3 Isaac Paredes 3B · R | .249 | .346 | .412 | .758 | 15 | 60 | 68 | .749 |
| 4 Cam Smith RF · R | .217 | .289 | .372 | .661 | 13 | 40 | 101 | .739 |
| 5 Jose Altuve 2B · R | .244 | .305 | .398 | .703 | 13 | 34 | 80 | .731 |
| 6 Daulton Varsho CF · L | .242 | .311 | .370 | .681 | 7 | 26 | 74 | .719 |
| 7 Jeremy Peña SS · R | .311 | .369 | .509 | .878 | 13 | 37 | 56 | .736 |
| 8 Yainer Diaz C · R | .260 | .284 | .414 | .698 | 8 | 27 | 35 | .738 |
| 9 Christian Vázquez C · R | .218 | .272 | .330 | .602 | 5 | 23 | 41 | .681 |
HOME · SD Projected · top 9 by AB
| BATTER | 2026 SEASON | PROJ OPS | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | HR | RBI | K | ||
| 1 Fernando Tatis Jr. RF · R | .280 | .350 | .403 | .753 | 9 | 50 | 98 | .756 |
| 2 Jackson Merrill CF · L | .241 | .292 | .396 | .688 | 16 | 55 | 114 | .765 |
| 3 Manny Machado 3B · R | .210 | .294 | .422 | .716 | 23 | 70 | 108 | .733 |
| 4 Xander Bogaerts SS · R | .227 | .323 | .327 | .650 | 9 | 41 | 80 | .715 |
| 5 Gavin Sheets 1B · L | .212 | .311 | .389 | .700 | 14 | 43 | 77 | .709 |
| 6 Ty France 1B · R | .291 | .343 | .526 | .869 | 16 | 50 | 72 | .703 |
| 7 Luis Rengifo LF · S | .241 | .323 | .309 | .632 | 2 | 27 | 36 | .714 |
| 8 Jake Cronenworth 2B · L | .218 | .310 | .289 | .599 | 3 | 17 | 51 | .714 |
| 9 Freddy Fermin C · R | .187 | .269 | .310 | .579 | 4 | 16 | 36 | .708 |
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
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1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .339
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .378 xwOBA over 419 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .334 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .328
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 466 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 188 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
3 MM Manny Machado RHB .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 480 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 274 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 168 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
-
4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 398 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 442 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 175 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 110 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
6 TF Ty France RHB .290
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 367 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
7 LR Luis Rengifo SH .306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luis Rengifo
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 343 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
8 JC Jake Cronenworth LHB .310
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Cronenworth
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 493 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
9 FF Freddy Fermin RHB .279
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Freddy Fermin
- Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (29% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 128 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (19% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
1 CW Christian Walker RHB .305
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Walker
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 453 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 257 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 162 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 332 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
2 YA Yordan Alvarez SH .382
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yordan Alvarez
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .403 xwOBA over 383 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 169 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .394 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .407 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
3 IP Isaac Paredes RHB .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Paredes
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 446 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 313 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
4 CS Cam Smith RHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cam Smith
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 136 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
-
5 JA Jose Altuve RHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jose Altuve
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 434 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .249 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 315 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
-
6 DV Daulton Varsho LHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Daulton Varsho
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 394 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 13 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 JP Jeremy Peña RHB .344
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jeremy Peña
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .389 xwOBA over 334 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 284 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 309 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 YD Yainer Diaz RHB .325
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yainer Diaz
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 297 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 268 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .375 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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9 CV Christian Vázquez RHB .274
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Christian Vázquez
- Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (24% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (14% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Knuckle Curve (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (5% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · HOU
Lineup 4.6 R
Bunts 1.7 R
IBBs 0.5 R
HOME · SD
Lineup 1.7 R
Bunts 2.2 R
IBBs 1.9 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · HOU
- Available 7
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · SD
- Available 6
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · HOU
7-3
L1
+13 run diff
LWLWWWWWWL
HOME · SD
7-3
W1
+8 run diff
WLWLWWWLWW
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Astros and Padres staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.