June 26, 2026 · NL Cent
Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals
@
Probable starters
AWAY
TBD
HOME · STL
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
STL starter vs Marlins lineup
Dustin May (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .315
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1 OL Otto Lopez RHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Otto Lopez
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .372 xwOBA over 278 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 329 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .233 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 XE Xavier Edwards SH .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xavier Edwards
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 207 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 420 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 163 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 JM Jakob Marsee LHB .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jakob Marsee
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 30 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 27 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 KS Kyle Stowers LHB .336
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Stowers
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 320 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .385 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 125 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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5 CN Connor Norby RHB .317
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Connor Norby
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .261 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 OC Owen Caissie LHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Owen Caissie
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 JS Javier Sanoja RHB .293
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Javier Sanoja
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 176 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 HH Heriberto Hernández RHB .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Heriberto Hernández
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 28 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 JM Joe Mack LHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Joe Mack
- Sweeper (30% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (26% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (15% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (4% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (3% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 11 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · MIA
Lineup 2.4 R
Bunts 1.2 R
IBBs 0.8 R
HOME · STL
Lineup 2.1 R
Bunts 2.3 R
IBBs 1.2 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · MIA
- Available 7
- Limited 2
- Rest required 1
- Inactive 1
HOME · STL
- Available 7
- Limited 1
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · MIA
6-4
L1
+5 run diff
LWWWWLLWLW
HOME · STL
5-5
W2
-6 run diff
WWLLLWWLWL
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Marlins and Cardinals staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.