PREVIEW Starts 12:10 PM ET · Tropicana Field
June 25, 2026 · AL East

Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays

June 25, 202612:10 PM ETTropicana Field
AWAY
Kansas City Royals
33-46
—
@
HOME
Tampa Bay Rays
43-32
—

Probable starters

AWAY · KC
Seth Lugo
Seth Lugo
HOME · TB
Ian Seymour
Ian Seymour

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

KC starter vs Rays lineup

Seth Lugo (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .308
  1. 1 JC Junior Caminero RHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Junior Caminero
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .364 xwOBA over 238 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 116 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 9 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  2. 2 YD Yandy Díaz RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Yandy Díaz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 396 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 353 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 232 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  3. 3 CS Chandler Simpson LHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Chandler Simpson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 143 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  4. 4 JA Jonathan Aranda LHB .342
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jonathan Aranda
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 282 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .361 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .401 xwOBA over limited BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  5. 5 CM Cedric Mullins LHB .291
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cedric Mullins
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 436 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 140 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .253 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  6. 6 NF Nick Fortes RHB .287
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Fortes
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 209 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 177 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .246 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 3 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  7. 7 TW Taylor Walls SH .286
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Taylor Walls
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .265 xwOBA over 301 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  8. 8 BW Ben Williamson RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ben Williamson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 135 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 22 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .282 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over limited BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
  9. 9 RP Richie Palacios LHB .313
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Richie Palacios
    • Four-Seam Fastball (20% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (18% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (16% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (13% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (9% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 52 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (8% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • SV (7% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
    • Sweeper (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • CS (3% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
Seth Lugo vs Rays: full season matchup breakdown →
TB starter vs Royals lineup

Ian Seymour (LHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .317
  1. 1 BW Bobby Witt Jr. RHB .358
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bobby Witt Jr.
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 450 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .388 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .371 xwOBA over 286 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 SP Salvador Perez RHB .323
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Salvador Perez
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 190 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 124 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 MG Maikel Garcia RHB .317
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Maikel Garcia
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 458 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 249 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC Jac Caglianone LHB .330
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jac Caglianone
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 132 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 CJ Carter Jensen LHB .316
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carter Jensen
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 35 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 IC Isaac Collins SH .308
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Isaac Collins
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 55 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 MM Michael Massey LHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Massey
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 133 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 291 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .271 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 99 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 LT Lane Thomas RHB .309
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Lane Thomas
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 263 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 69 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 180 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 129 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 NL Nick Loftin RHB .296
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Loftin
    • Changeup (32% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (13% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (12% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (11% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Ian Seymour vs Royals: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · KC
Matt Quatraro
Matt Quatraro
Lineup 3.1 R Bunts 1.6 R IBBs 1.5 R
HOME · TB
Kevin Cash
Kevin Cash
Lineup 1.3 R Bunts 2.5 R IBBs 2.8 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · KC
  • Available 7
  • Limited 2
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · TB
  • Available 7
  • Limited 1
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · KC
5-5 W1 +7 run diff
WLWWWLLWLL
HOME · TB
3-7 L1 -5 run diff
LWLWLLLWLL

Season series: 1-0 with KC listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Royals and Rays staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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