June 25, 2026 · NL East
Chicago Cubs at New York Mets
@
Probable starters
AWAY
TBD
HOME · NYM
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
NYM starter vs Cubs lineup
Freddy Peralta (RHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .317
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1 NH Nico Hoerner RHB .319
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nico Hoerner
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 497 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 79 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 231 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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2 AB Alex Bregman RHB .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Alex Bregman
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 471 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .259 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 224 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 PC Pete Crow-Armstrong LHB .316
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 182 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 IH Ian Happ SH .318
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ian Happ
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 541 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .267 xwOBA over 269 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 178 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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5 MB Michael Busch LHB .340
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Busch
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .370 xwOBA over 504 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 202 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 DS Dansby Swanson RHB .311
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dansby Swanson
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 440 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 SS Seiya Suzuki RHB .327
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Seiya Suzuki
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .359 xwOBA over 403 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .291 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 262 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8 CK Carson Kelly RHB .302
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carson Kelly
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 287 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .324 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .266 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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9 MS Matt Shaw RHB .312
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Shaw
- Four-Seam Fastball (53% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (21% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 58 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 25 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (11% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · CHC
Lineup 2.6 R
Bunts 0.5 R
IBBs 0.6 R
HOME · NYM
Lineup 3.7 R
Bunts 1.8 R
IBBs 1.5 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · CHC
- Available 8
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · NYM
- Available 9
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · CHC
5-3
?2
+17 run diff
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HOME · NYM
4-5
?1
-13 run diff
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Season series: 0-0 with CHC listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Cubs and Mets staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.