June 24, 2026 · NL West
Boston Red Sox at Colorado Rockies
@
Probable starters
AWAY · BOS
HOME · COL
Lineups
Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.
Pitcher vs. lineup projection
Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.
BOS starter vs Rockies lineup
Ranger Suarez (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .316
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1 HG Hunter Goodman RHB .331
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Hunter Goodman
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .345 xwOBA over 154 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 300 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .350 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 TR TJ Rumfield LHB .314
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. TJ Rumfield
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 39 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 21 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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3 ET Ezequiel Tovar RHB .333
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ezequiel Tovar
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 195 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 402 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 TJ Troy Johnston LHB .320
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Troy Johnston
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 117 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .342 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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5 WC Willi Castro SH .309
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willi Castro
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .368 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 473 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 183 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .263 xwOBA over 108 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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6 KK Kyle Karros RHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Kyle Karros
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 75 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .326 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 18 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .269 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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7 JM Jake McCarthy LHB .326
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake McCarthy
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 147 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 66 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 111 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .289 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .264 xwOBA over 112 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
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8 EJ Edouard Julien LHB .303
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Edouard Julien
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 60 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 96 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 TF Tyler Freeman RHB .308
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Tyler Freeman
- Sinker (28% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 244 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Four-Seam Fastball (18% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 302 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (17% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Curveball (17% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Slider (3% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
COL starter vs Red Sox lineup
Kyle Freeland (LHP)
Lineup avg xwOBA .312
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1 JD Jarren Duran LHB .323
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jarren Duran
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 559 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 92 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 212 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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2 WA Wilyer Abreu LHB .315
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Wilyer Abreu
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 406 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 159 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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3 CR Ceddanne Rafaela RHB .307
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ceddanne Rafaela
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 388 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 24 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 148 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 261 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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4 WC Willson Contreras RHB .337
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Willson Contreras
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .369 xwOBA over 381 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 16 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .379 xwOBA over 229 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
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5 CD Caleb Durbin RHB .300
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Caleb Durbin
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 57 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 48 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 189 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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6 MM Marcelo Mayer LHB .306
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcelo Mayer
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 5 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 20 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 51 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .281 xwOBA over 54 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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7 MY Masataka Yoshida LHB .321
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Masataka Yoshida
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .337 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 65 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 130 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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8 CN Carlos Narváez RHB .299
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Carlos Narváez
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 7 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 59 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
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9 AM Andruw Monasterio RHB .304
Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Andruw Monasterio
- Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 119 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Knuckle Curve (24% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over limited BIP — a roughly even matchup (zone profile imputed from overall vs-handedness wOBA — limited per-pitch-type data).
- Cutter (18% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Changeup (10% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 34 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
- Sinker (8% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 72 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Manager comparison
AWAY · BOS
Lineup 1.2 R
Bunts 0.9 R
IBBs 0.2 R
Interim
HOME · COL
Lineup 2.7 R
Bunts 1.1 R
IBBs 2.3 R
Bullpen availability
AWAY · BOS
- Available 8
- Limited 0
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
HOME · COL
- Available 6
- Limited 2
- Rest required 0
- Inactive 0
Recent form
AWAY · BOS
4-6
L2
+6 run diff
LLWWLLLLWW
HOME · COL
5-5
W1
+11 run diff
WLWWLWLWLL
Season series: 0-1 with BOS listed first across 1 prior meeting.
Pitching & bullpen preview
Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Red Sox and Rockies staffs going in.
Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.
Keep reading
How RunsLeft analyzes games
Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.