PREVIEW Starts 6:40 PM ET · PNC Park
June 24, 2026 · NL Cent

Seattle Mariners at Pittsburgh Pirates

June 24, 20266:40 PM ETPNC Park
AWAY
Seattle Mariners
40-39
—
@
HOME
Pittsburgh Pirates
39-39
—

Probable starters

AWAY · SEA
Bryan Woo
Bryan Woo
HOME · PIT
Braxton Ashcraft
Braxton Ashcraft

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

SEA starter vs Pirates lineup

Bryan Woo (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .320
  1. 1 BL Brandon Lowe SH .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Brandon Lowe
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .362 xwOBA over 333 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 164 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .307 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 199 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 BR Bryan Reynolds SH .346
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Bryan Reynolds
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 488 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .380 xwOBA over 218 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .285 xwOBA over 228 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 246 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 NG Nick Gonzales RHB .302
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Nick Gonzales
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 266 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 241 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 187 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 SH Spencer Horwitz LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Spencer Horwitz
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 368 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .344 xwOBA over 158 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 134 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 RO Ryan O'Hearn LHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ryan O'Hearn
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 412 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .365 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 179 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 151 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MO Marcell Ozuna RHB .345
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Marcell Ozuna
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .373 xwOBA over 409 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 330 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 121 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 144 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 JM Jake Mangum SH .295
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jake Mangum
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 149 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 83 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .280 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 JT Jared Triolo RHB .298
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jared Triolo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .298 xwOBA over 324 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 204 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .295 xwOBA over 137 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .250 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 81 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  9. 9 HD Henry Davis RHB .288
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Henry Davis
    • Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage) projects to .276 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sinker (22% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 107 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (12% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (11% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Changeup (7% usage) projects to .277 xwOBA over 38 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Bryan Woo vs Pirates: full season matchup breakdown →
PIT starter vs Mariners lineup

Braxton Ashcraft (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .327
  1. 1 JR Julio Rodríguez RHB .337
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Julio Rodríguez
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .358 xwOBA over 425 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .340 xwOBA over 276 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .308 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 365 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 42 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 CY Cole Young LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cole Young
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 213 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 70 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 23 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 97 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 15 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  3. 3 JN Josh Naylor LHB .320
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Josh Naylor
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 454 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .335 xwOBA over 260 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  4. 4 JC J.P. Crawford LHB .322
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. J.P. Crawford
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 474 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 47 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .332 xwOBA over 247 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 40 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 LR Luke Raley LHB .336
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Luke Raley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .382 xwOBA over 245 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 43 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 109 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 41 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 CR Cal Raleigh SH .344
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Cal Raleigh
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .363 xwOBA over 536 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .313 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .436 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 77 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 DC Dominic Canzone LHB .368
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Canzone
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .400 xwOBA over 185 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .349 xwOBA over 87 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 49 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 37 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  8. 8 RR Rob Refsnyder RHB .303
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rob Refsnyder
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .327 xwOBA over 222 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 73 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .294 xwOBA over 32 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 114 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 14 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 MG Mitch Garver RHB .290
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mitch Garver
    • Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 267 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (27% usage) projects to .255 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Curveball (23% usage) projects to .299 xwOBA over 29 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 150 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Splitter (3% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Braxton Ashcraft vs Mariners: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · SEA
Dan Wilson
Dan Wilson
Lineup 2.3 R Bunts 0.9 R IBBs 1.3 R
HOME · PIT
Don Kelly
Don Kelly
Lineup 3.0 R Bunts 0.6 R IBBs 1.8 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · SEA
  • Available 7
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · PIT
  • Available 7
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · SEA
4-6 W1 -11 run diff
WLLWLWLLWL
HOME · PIT
4-6 W1 -8 run diff
WLLWWLLWLL

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Mariners and Pirates staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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