PREVIEW Starts 8:40 PM ET · Petco Park
June 24, 2026 · NL West

Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres

June 24, 20268:40 PM ETPetco Park
AWAY
Atlanta Braves
48-29
—
@
HOME
San Diego Padres
40-37
—

Probable starters

AWAY · ATL
Martín Pérez
Martín Pérez
HOME · SD
Randy Vásquez
Randy Vásquez

Lineups

Lineups are usually announced ~90 minutes before first pitch. Check back soon.

Pitcher vs. lineup projection

Projected expected wOBA for each probable starter against the opposing lineup, by batting order. A season-to-date matchup read — forward-looking, not a result.

ATL starter vs Padres lineup

Martín Pérez (LHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .314
  1. 1 FT Fernando Tatis Jr. RHB .326
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Fernando Tatis Jr.
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 349 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 139 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 91 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 380 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  2. 2 JM Jackson Merrill LHB .338
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jackson Merrill
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .377 xwOBA over 205 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .316 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 98 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .347 xwOBA over 421 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  3. 3 MM Manny Machado RHB .327
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Manny Machado
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 338 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 157 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 74 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 441 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  4. 4 XB Xander Bogaerts RHB .297
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Xander Bogaerts
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .286 xwOBA over 296 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .251 xwOBA over 118 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 82 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 64 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .348 xwOBA over 374 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  5. 5 GS Gavin Sheets LHB .328
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Gavin Sheets
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 193 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .328 xwOBA over 155 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .321 xwOBA over 94 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .300 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .310 xwOBA over 413 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 MA Miguel Andujar RHB .300
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Miguel Andujar
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 198 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .268 xwOBA over 78 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 45 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 203 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  7. 7 TF Ty France RHB .294
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ty France
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 254 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .257 xwOBA over 115 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 68 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .305 xwOBA over 323 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  8. 8 RD Rodolfo Durán RHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Rodolfo Durán
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .309 xwOBA over 10 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .296 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .306 xwOBA over 4 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 19 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 SS Sung-Mun Song LHB .306
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Sung-Mun Song
    • Sinker (32% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 8 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (29% usage) projects to .315 xwOBA over 6 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (24% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 12 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Four-Seam Fastball (5% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 17 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
Martín Pérez vs Padres: full season matchup breakdown →
SD starter vs Braves lineup

Randy Vásquez (RHP)

Lineup avg xwOBA .325
  1. 1 MO Matt Olson LHB .348
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Matt Olson
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .376 xwOBA over 569 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 160 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .386 xwOBA over 275 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 120 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .314 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 165 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .287 xwOBA over 221 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  2. 2 OA Ozzie Albies SH .305
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Ozzie Albies
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 410 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .329 xwOBA over 100 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .333 xwOBA over 201 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .248 xwOBA over 153 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .303 xwOBA over 86 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .258 xwOBA over 226 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 131 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  3. 3 AR Austin Riley RHB .325
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Austin Riley
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 395 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .346 xwOBA over 89 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .341 xwOBA over 211 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .284 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .330 xwOBA over 123 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .331 xwOBA over 103 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .273 xwOBA over 172 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  4. 4 MD Mauricio Dubón RHB .301
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mauricio Dubón
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .283 xwOBA over 331 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 186 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .293 xwOBA over 104 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .288 xwOBA over 166 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  5. 5 MH Michael Harris II LHB .347
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Michael Harris II
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .360 xwOBA over 362 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .366 xwOBA over 93 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .317 xwOBA over 237 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .354 xwOBA over 106 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .304 xwOBA over 102 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 170 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .336 xwOBA over 174 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  6. 6 DB Drake Baldwin LHB .351
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Drake Baldwin
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .387 xwOBA over 181 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .357 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .352 xwOBA over 152 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 50 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .338 xwOBA over 26 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .279 xwOBA over 88 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .355 xwOBA over 84 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
  7. 7 MY Mike Yastrzemski LHB .319
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Mike Yastrzemski
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .320 xwOBA over 475 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .343 xwOBA over 90 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .318 xwOBA over 171 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .297 xwOBA over 71 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .322 xwOBA over 126 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .278 xwOBA over 146 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
  8. 8 DS Dominic Smith LHB .321
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Dominic Smith
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .339 xwOBA over 217 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .353 xwOBA over 56 BIP — a meaningful edge for the batter.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .312 xwOBA over 122 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .290 xwOBA over 63 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .301 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .274 xwOBA over 76 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .311 xwOBA over 80 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
  9. 9 JM Jorge Mateo RHB .311
    Pitch-by-pitch projection vs. Jorge Mateo
    • Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage) projects to .323 xwOBA over 105 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Cutter (23% usage) projects to .325 xwOBA over 33 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sinker (16% usage) projects to .319 xwOBA over 62 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Curveball (13% usage) projects to .292 xwOBA over 31 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Sweeper (10% usage) projects to .302 xwOBA over 36 BIP — a roughly even matchup.
    • Changeup (8% usage) projects to .275 xwOBA over 44 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
    • Slider (3% usage) projects to .270 xwOBA over 61 BIP — a clear edge for the pitcher.
Randy Vásquez vs Braves: full season matchup breakdown →

Manager comparison

AWAY · ATL
Walt Weiss
Walt Weiss
Lineup 2.3 R Bunts 0.0 R IBBs 0.5 R
HOME · SD
Craig Stammen
Craig Stammen
Lineup 1.5 R Bunts 0.6 R IBBs 0.6 R

Bullpen availability

AWAY · ATL
  • Available 7
  • Limited 1
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0
HOME · SD
  • Available 8
  • Limited 0
  • Rest required 0
  • Inactive 0

Recent form

AWAY · ATL
3-6 L2 -21 run diff
LLWW?LLLLW
HOME · SD
5-5 W1 +6 run diff
WLWLWLLWWL

Season series: 0-1 with ATL listed first across 1 prior meeting.

Pitching & bullpen preview

Probable starters and each bullpen's availability load in the sections above — the Braves and Padres staffs going in.

Once the game ends, a full pitching and bullpen breakdown appears here: starter lines, the relief sequence and each arm's role, pitch counts, and where the game turned.

Keep reading

How RunsLeft analyzes games

Standard content on this page comes from the MLB Stats API. The pitching analysis describes how the game was pitched — the starter's line, the bullpen sequence and each arm's role (opener, bulk, setup, closer), pitch counts as a fatigue signal, and the leverage context where the game turned. Reliever roles are inferred from how the manager used each arm up to that date. It describes structure and constraints; it does not grade the manager.

Read the full methodology.

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